If you had gone to a factory in 1980, and went to the same factory in 2022, you probably might not see as many people there as you would have seen back in the 80’s. Chances are excellent you’ll probably see more machines and robots on the assembly line. This speaks volumes as to how work has changed in the manufacturing space.
Work – not just in manufacturing, but in general, will continue to change in some profound ways, and this trend has been going on for centuries. This is because, one – if not the most progressive element that drives this change is the advances in technology.
The advent of artificial intelligence and automation has equally contributed to changing the dynamics of how work is done. And more recently, we’ve also seen another factor being brought to the fold, and this is the COVID – 19.
With the advancement in technology and AI, we’ve started to see machines that can do some of the things we associate with human intelligence. For example, self – driving cars and trucks, machines that can think through classes of problems and understand patterns; and deep learning algorithms that are better diagnosing radiological images better than radiologists. And every time new technology is introduced, at least a fraction of the employment population is rendered redundant.
Using this information and extrapolating it into the future, one can’t help but paint a very dystopian picture with regard the future of employment. A picture that suggests that most jobs will be automated, which is fairly possible. And the existence of this possibility gives rise to several questions – the most prominent being, “What will people do in the future; and should we be worried?”
To answer these questions, it’s absolutely imperative that we also consider other impacts (perhaps more favourable) of technology on future employment, in addition to what has been discussed.
James Manyika (SVP at google), in one of his interviews stated – “What we see with technology and automation is a phenomena of three kinds, yes some jobs lost, some jobs gained but also many more jobs changed”.
This statement helps broaden the perspective with regard the impacts of technology and automation, and these impacts are discussed in further detail below.
JOBS LOST
When bronze tools were invented, workers who made stone tools were driven out of work. And when iron tools came along, all the bronze workers lost their jobs. When the industrial revolution hit, it wiped out the livelihoods of millions of clobbers and weavers who had to adapt or get left behind. This process continues today, only now it’s happening at an exponential rate.
If we date back a couple of years, you’ll realise that some routine jobs have become automated thanks to breakthroughs and technologies like robotics, radio frequency Identification, and computing high speed networking. This has led to loss of employment for many. The COVID – 19 pandemic has also contributed in exacerbating this situation.
JOBS GAINED
While some jobs are lost, some are being created. With the COVID – 19 pandemic and the aid of technology, we’ve seen new, more remote jobs emerge. Some of these jobs are not here temporarily, but are here to penetrate the job market. There are also some “extreme” jobs emerging, with the aid of technology, that require different skills and aptitudes to execute. Take Khaby Lame for example, who ever thought you can have a net worth of 2.1 million USD by creating short videos on an application called Tiktok, in which you say nothing, except make a few hand gestures.
JOBS CHANGED
The way work is done has constantly been changing. In the past 2 years, we’ve seen an absolute change in the way some traditional jobs are being performed due to COVID– 19. And all this has been made possible with technology being at the fore. This trajectory of change in jobs and how work is done is expected to continue in the foreseeable future, as more advances in technologies are made.
IN A NUTSHELL
What we’ve seen historically, and looking forward is that – yes, there will be some occupations that might decline, but so are many more actually growing and emerging.
However, there are concerns on the skills that will be required to execute future jobs, and how difficult these skills will be to acquire. There are also concerns on the impact on incomes and wages. These concerns are predicated on the fact that, many of the hardest occupations to automate, care work for example, are low earning jobs, and these are the jobs which are most likely to remain.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of KPMG Zambia.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
My names are Chota Munthali. I possess a CA Zambia qualification and I am currently in the employ of KPMG Zambia where I am designated to the post of Accountant 1 under our Audit and Assurance Practice.