Clarence Chongo, Lusaka, Monday, 10 June 2024 — Across the length and breadth of the great nation of Zambia, a harsh, unwelcome reality has imposed itself upon the citizenry. Every day, as the midday sun traverses the sky and dips below the horizon, an unsettling silence descends. Instead of the usual cacophony of business and industrial activity, and of leisure escapades, the nation is plunged into darkness. This isn’t a mere power outage, such as would emerge if a substation were struck by lightning; it’s the chilling reality of an energy crisis gripping Zambia by the jugular and squeezing.
The mighty Zambezi River, once an abundant source of life-giving power for Zambia, now flows at a trickle. The savage fury of El Niño, coupled with the crippling effects of a climate in constant flux, has laid bare Zambia’s years of over-reliance on hydroelectricity and thrust the nation into a debilitating energy crisis. The immediate to near future seems bleak, and if the energy woes are left unaddressed, an economic catastrophe could be the ultimate conclusion of this malaise. Key players in the energy sector, including public and private operators, are alive to these woes but need to move with immediate, due haste.
Zambia’s Capacity for Power Generation
By the end of 2023, the national capacity to generate electricity was 3,811.3 MW (a slight increase from 3,777.3 MW a year earlier). The glaring reality in this figure is the contribution of hydroelectricity to the mix. This totalled 3,164.14 MW, representing a staggering 83% of the total national capacity, and with all other forms, such as solar, thermal and diesel taking up a combined total of only 17%. It should be pointed out that these figures relate to the so-called ‘installed capacity,’ i.e., they are based on power-generation programmes and projects that have already been commissioned and not necessarily the entire realm of possibilities.
Image: Courtesy of Energy Regulation Board (Energy Sector Report 2023)
The stark dominance of hydroelectricity on the energy mix is the country’s Achile’s heel. Zambia’s hydroelectricity generation relies on water inflows channelled by the Zambezi and Kafue river-basins. These flows are extremely sensitive to seasonal and annual precipitation, specifically in the form of rainfall.
An interesting detail in the mix of Zambia’s installed capacity for electricity generation is the fact that 86.2% of that mix comprises renewable sources, with fossil fuels representing only 13.8%. Of those fossil fuels, coal, which accounts for the thermal power aspect, caters for just 8.7% of Zambia’s power.
The Matter with the Rain
For an optimal supply of power generation to occur, circa 40.0B cubic metres of water must flow into Lake Kariba over any annual period. In turn, this requires around 1,000mm of the rain in the northern region of the country, and at least 200mm in the south. This translates to a total requirement of 1,200mm of rain per year.
The actual experience of rainfall over Zambia presents a worrying picture. Since the 1930s, the country has experienced an overall downward trend in annual rainfall across all seasons, as can be seen in the table ‘Zambia’s Seasonal Precipitation’ (courtesy of the World Bank, Climate Change Knowledge Portal). In the last decade, Zambia has had spatially variable rainfall trends, with most regions showing a significant decrease compared to earlier decades.
While this does not represent direct evidence of the effect of climate change, the signature of the industrial revolution, and of the growth in fossil fuel use among the heavily industrialised nations of the north and west can almost be detected in Zambia’s rainfall trends of the last century. What is without doubt is the impact that climate change has had on Zambia and the sub-Saharan region, evident in intermittent droughts and the consequential effect on power generation. Critical sectors of the economy, such as energy and mining have faced the devastating ravages of climate change, exposing them to fundamental risks and vulnerabilities.
El Niño; Hell, Oh No!
As if a climatic devastation—caused primarily by actors in lands far, far away—was not enough, the tail end of 2023 saw El Niño rear its ugly head with a dramatic and crushing impact upon the country. El Niño is a climate pattern that disrupts the usual balance in the Pacific Ocean. It’s characterised by unusually warm surface water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Normally, trade winds blow from east to west across the Pacific, pushing warm surface water towards Asia. This warm water creates a bulge in sea level on the western side of the Pacific.
During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or even reverse direction. This allows the warm surface water to slosh back eastward towards the Americas. The consequences of this shift are felt worldwide, but some regions, like Southern Africa, are particularly vulnerable.
The current El Niño event, which is in full effect at the time of writing, is considered one of the strongest on record. Apart from observable changes to seasonal patterns and increases in average and peak prevailing temperatures, El Niño’s best present to Zambia has been a deep and prolonged drought that has led to the declaration of a state of national disaster. El Niño has resulted in a considerable reduction to water levels in hydroelectric dams with the consequential significant negative impacts on energy production which, for a country that is 83% reliant on hydropower is quite simply incapacitating.
Forget the Light, Let There Be Darkness
For Zambia, the flip-side of drought has been, among other effects, load-shedding (planned power outages or power rationing) due to the strain on the national grid and resulting, in many cases, in lack of power supply for more than half the hours of every day. This has brought about a remarkable degree of disruption to businesses, homes, and essential services.
The current El Niño event is a stark reminder of the vulnerability of Zambia’s energy sector to climate variability. Experts suggest an increased likelihood of more frequent and severe El Niño events in the future due to climate change.
Flicking the Lights Back On
To build a more resilient energy sector and weather the challenges of El Niño and other climate extremes, proactive measures are crucial for our country. Such measures include diversifying energy sources by investing in renewable energy like solar and wind power, but primarily and crucially, Zambia should expand its capacity for coal-powered electricity generation. This will reduce reliance on hydropower, which is vulnerable to El Niño’s impact on water levels.
What about those pesky emissions, though; should we not be worrying about them?
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) have reported on their website that, as of 2021, Zambia was contributing a miniscule 0.19% to global carbon emissions. For context, we can compare this to the United States whose emissions are 13.5% of the global total and China, which contributes 27%. The effect of these countries and many other industrialised nations is significantly higher than the proportionate effect of the respective populations. In the specific case of the US, its emissions are more than 71 times those of Zambia, compared to a population that is just 17 times as large.
Why are these comparisons important?
Zambia’s CO2 Emissions By Sector—Data Courtesy of IEA
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Zambia’s energy sector contributes only 1% to the total national emissions. If the country, whose fossil fuel power generation is only 13.8% of total national power, transitioned to full coal power generation, for example, the energy sector would then only contribute 7% to the national emissions. This, in turn, means that Zambia’s total emissions would only increase to 0.2% of the global total, up from 0.19%. In other words, if Zambia were to transition to full coal power production, the overall impact on global emissions would be miniscule.
Obviously, there is no need to transition to coal en masse for electricity generation. What Zambia requires is that at any one time, production capacity is developed for an optimal mix of energy solutions in such a way, fashion, manner and design that the energy demand of the nation can be met and met and met in full. That optimal mix will change over time, taking into account the prevailing technology, access to investment and the constraints imposed by climatic conditions locally and globally. But the country should not ever grind to a halt or be plunged into darkness, El Nino or no, no.
