–This article has been authorized for republishing on fizambia.com by the Author. It first appear in the Daily Nation in December 2019
The vast and drastic imbalances that are so glaringly noticeable in the wide array of economies on the global landscape should not be rendered a mystery or reduced to convoluted myth-making. The huge disparities in the levels of development and sustainable accumulation of capital including the human component have their origins in the way some countries do things correctly while other countries are perpetually and inexorably off tangent.
Disparities in development across the global chessboard can be accounted for in terms of correct priority ordering versus the mis-priority and right perception of what constitutes development and misperception on the other side of the divide. Significantly, vital elements in the development recipe or script must include dedication and commitment shrouded inappropriate work culture and ethic.
The beleaguered African continent is home to 1.2 billion people which is about 16% of the world population. But Africa’s combined gross domestic product (GDP) is approximately 3% of the global GDP, or about half of the GDP of japan; the surface area of the Japanese islands is 378,000 square kilometers which is about half the area of Zambia. If the South African economy, supposedly a glimmer of hope for Africa but which so far shows no credible signs of remedial upward swing, continues on its inexorable downward drift, the 800 square kilometer island of Singapore will in the not too distant future surpass the GDP of the Republic of South Africa.
Meanwhile, here at home in Zambia, our GDP at independence was the same as South Korea at $3.5 billion. Now South Korea’s GDP is about $1.4 trillion and our GDP is about $60 billion, meaning our GDP is only about 4.2% of South Korea. As our GDP computations could be a very quick progression to fiction, I have used the data in the world bank’s world development indicators of 2015 (base year 2013) which puts Zambia’s nominal GDP at $26.3 billion using the atlas method, and $55.4 billion using the purchasing power parity (PPP). The PPP route takes into account price differentials, for instance, the price of lager beer maybe $2 in the USA while it is $0.50 in Zambia.
Putting the African economies in a wider global context enables us to see the intensity, depth and lamentable enormity of the quagmire in which we are that consigns us to the periphery of the global economy – a marginalization which reduces us to an obscure footnote in world affairs. A rabbi of some distinction once observed that there was a streak in Judaism which tended to regard history and world affairs as a poker game played between god and the jews, in which process and event the presence of other people was casually noted but not assigned any significance. Unless the African performance improves by leaps and bounds, the privilege of that poker game with the good lord may remain illusory as we run the risk of being consigned to the garbage heap of irrelevance.
The thrust of this submission is to underscore the essence and inescapable compelling need to get our act together as a prelude to a meaningful and sustained leap forward. This eventuality requires individual and collective deep and, above all, honest introspection by each and every one of us citizens. We must all embrace the habit of assigning a bit more primacy to service of our country by putting self-interest on hold or at least in check and balance.
The population of Zambia in 1964, the year of our break from colonialism, was just under 3 million. The current estimate is 18 million. We have more or less increased our population six-fold without commensurate robust economic growth. Herein lies the time bomb – quite substantial development has taken place in comparison with the exceedingly low ebb of the insidious colonial era. In the recent 8 years of the patriotic front (pf) administration, more stupendous efforts have been made to ensure some modicum of development in the far-flung areas of our large country.
The bottom line, however, is simply that efforts at development of our country, past and now, remain below optimal levels required to reduce, let alone eradicate, poverty which apart from degrading victims is also the largest hindrance to meaningful sustainable development. Poor people have no purchasing power and remain, bystanders, as hunger takes a severe toll on them. The sad thing is that even those few Zambians in some sort of employment live on the precarious margins of existence. Wages as in most other African countries remain appallingly low, eroded by relentless inflationary spirals. Income disparities have become more entrenched as the gap between the haves and have-nots becomes increasingly irreversible.
The vexing issue of the stagnation or painfully sluggish growth of our country is a huge challenge which requires deeper reflection by all of us. We need to pool our small experiences and intellectual resources to rescue ourselves and our country from dehumanizing poverty. Leadership in all shapes and levels has a major role for after all, Africa’s miserable failure is essentially a leadership failure. We all, however, have a critical role; crafty apportioning of blame and heaping obscenities at selected targets does not put food on the table. We must all deem it our inextricable duty and responsibility to recognize and accept the negative aspects of our political culture. As freedom fighters, our legacy to the country, despite unquestionable commitment, has been populism even as misery escalated. This has induced a small number of us to feel severely morally constrained to accept being honoured as freedom fighters.
The players on the current political scene should disentangle themselves from outcompeting over the futility of populism which inclines politicians to make lavish and careless undertakings which on account of paucity of resources may be unsustainable. Right now, the prognosis for the global economy is most uncheerful largely attributable to the madness of Washington driven trade wars at the behest of the Trump administration. The commodity prices have taken a severe beating leading to a consequential dip in our economy, being an inordinately commodity-dependent country. To compound matters, acts of God in the form of weather adversity have hampered development prospects. Agriculture in Zambia contributes between 15-20 % to the GDP. Any contraction in the agricultural sector sends the GDP nosediving. Stoking unsustainable expectations carries with it obvious downside risks of undermining confidence in public institutions, in the end bidding up skepticism and worse, cynicism.
The glaring challenge for all political leaders in Zambia is to join efforts to tell the populace that no country has wealth other than what people create and that development is only a tenable eventuality when and where people are active agents of development. Zambia has many people in the remote areas of our country who work exceedingly hard and break their backs; there are equally large numbers of our people who are symbols of indolence and irresponsibility. Prospects for enhancing the purchasing power of our people, in the process growing the economy, are inevitably embedded in the agro sector. A veritable success story for Zambia will only be possible when people in the primary sector, which is synonymous with agriculture, get what amounts to a fair and reasonable recompense for their stupendous efforts. This matter is beyond producer prices. It is essentially an issue of both apt agronomy and growing crops in the appropriate ecological zones.
The country has a diversity of soil structures. In the savanna areas such as southern province, Lusaka and parts of the central province with an average rainfall of 750 millimetres, the humus factor is favorable. But much of the northern sector with high rainfall reaching or surpassing 1,400 millimetres, the acidic levels mean low humus levels of 4 or below which crops such as maize can’t endure except by toning down the acidities through costly liming of the soils to get the ph level to at least 5.5. The country is not without inspiring stories. In the southern province, even small-scale farmers need no assistance with agronomy to grow maize (Mapopwe), just ensure delivery of inputs on time. In 1979, I was in the interior of Kalomo and reached a remote place called Njabalombe – as the name suggests it must have been a difficult place and only tough guys “bolombe” reached there. The rewarding aspect of the visit was that the small-scale farmers in that area had maize yields higher than on the American and Canadian prairies. Apart from good soils, there was diligence and attention to detail.
Zambia has many success stories in agriculture. The small scale sugar cane producers at Kaleya in Mazabuka outdo Nakambala in cane yields, harvesting slightly above 130 tonnes of cane per hectare in comparison to big estates in Kwazulu natal province of South Africa with yields of 70-80 tonnes per hectare – the comparison may be distorted because the cane in natal is rain-fed whilst in Mazabuka, it is irrigated. However, the favorable cane yields underscore the advantages implicit in irrigation. Our good commercial farmers who grow irrigated wheat have reported yields of 11 tonnes and greater per hectare, outperforming the success stories of wheat yields of 10 tonnes per hectare in the state of Oregon in the united states of America, and that wheat is a genetically modified variety.
Supposing we did not marginalize or criminalize creativity and got small-scale farmers to do a soybean-wheat rotation; this would create viable alternative income possibilities. It is a big step forward to facilitate small scale farmers to benefit from the very salutary nitrogen recycling implicit in a soybean-wheat rotation. Soybeans do not need fertilizer but can be infused with inoculum, laboratory-bred bacteria that our resourceful scientists produce at Mount Makalu, a glaring success story. The aforesaid bacteria convert nitrogen from the air into a usable form for the plant. After the soy harvest, lots of nitrogen is left in the soil enabling a much-reduced outlay on expensive inorganic fertilizer for the next crop.
Agrarian revolutions are a compelling need for our stagnant continent. India is an outstanding example of a successful agrarian transformation. Up to the 1960s, India relied on international charity for the balance of its food needs. India now has massive food surpluses. Take sugar as an example – the requirement for sugar in India is around 26-27 million tonnes per annum, but currently india has a surplus of over 6 million tonnes which the indians are struggling to sell on the glutted global markets.
Successful agriculture can transform regions. In Zambia, we can cite the transformation of Chipata as an epitome of successful agricultural ventures. Agriculture around Chipata is very strong and i have personal experience. In 1981 after i resigned from the UNIP government, friends from a u.k. company, interbex, established the tobacco development company. Interbex was experiencing difficulties navigating the local politics so i was asked to assist by becoming chairman of the tobacco development company which was eastern province based. First, I agonized over promoting tobacco but high-income prospects for rural farmers swayed me in the direction of acceptance. I further salvaged my conscience by donating my director’s fees to facilitate the publication of the Zambia medical journal; when publication of the journal ceased, i reassigned my fees to charities. Anyway, for the next 30 years, I was in the east quite frequently to oversee production, principally at Kapara in Chipata and to a lesser extent in Vubwi and Zemba. Not least, it was a good opportunity to monitor the mischief of those easterners!
We made a lot of progress, especially when we recruited a school teacher, Lameck Mangani, as general manager. The communication with the growers was important and Lameck was a big plus before he left in pursuit of political prospects. In good years, tobacco contributed up to $50 million to the economy of the eastern province, especially Chipata. Good application and diligence were crucial factors as we learned at Kapara. Women excelled while men with social excessed were unimpressive – the women had tobacco yields of up to 2,000 kilograms while men averaged a mere 800 kilograms per hectare. It was an uplifting experience to see women come to prize giving at Kapara in their motor vehicles bought from the proceeds of tobacco sales.
If the distribution of seedlings to the small-scale farmers and the entire cashew nut project are properly managed, the economy of the western province will in 6 years from now be a robust and sustainable venture. People in the province are both diligent and quick to adapt. I have been an enthusiast for the cashew nut project and during my recent tenure at the ministry of finance, I visited the cashew nut project in Mongu several times, the last being for the purpose of handing over a government cheque to the co-operative as an encouragement, especially for the cashew processing component. A tonne of cashew nut fetches a lot more than that of copper. Cashew nut production costs in relation to copper are inconsequential. The $50 million from the African Development Bank is useful to kickstart the cashew project; more should be obtained from the same source and the cashew project should be replicated in several provinces.
It is legitimate to desire industrialisation but this for quite a while will remain a forlorn hope. Agriculture is quite a fast route. The economies in eastern Africa – Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia – have been successfully underpinned by coffee. Northern Zambia, with the most suitable climatic conditions, only delivers 5,000 tonnes. The scheme at Kateshi in Kasama operated by a company with origins in Singapore is a palpably undercapitalised toy venture without a viable out-growers component. All these plantation agricultural schemes have a gestation period which is much shorter than in extractive industries. Having had the privilege of superintending African rainbow mineral’s operations in Zambia until 2010, I can give an example of Konkola North Company (KONOCO), now called Lubambe copper mine. The exploration and prospecting started in 1996 and the mine only came on-stream in 2012 – a gestation of 16 years. Several times as chairman of KONOCO, I was in the mines department pleading for extensions to the license which were graciously granted.
The sad plight of the rural poor cannot be addressed by handouts. No government in zambia will ever secure a magic wand to ordain the eventuality of resources from the heavens for distribution. There is no alternative to concerted collective efforts to address poverty in our midst!
The versatile social media which has given citizens leeway and latitude for free expression and circumvention of dependence on encumbered media does not generate sensible debate on development options. Social media appears to be dominated by perpetually angry men and women with eternal axes to grind.
I do not patronise social media and my limited exposure indicates a few quite analytical submissions but largely issues which epitomise anger, frustration, and toxic bitterness. The authors or actors appear intelligent and talented in a variety of ways; the worry, therefore, is why should men and women of quite positive attributes not use their immense intelligence to indulge in deeper probes of the problems and weaknesses that bedevil our society. Why should those unique characters choose and take pride in being ardent and overzealous apostles and high priests of malice and ingrained hatred.
It is not uncharitable to suggest that regrettably our country betrays signs of being a moral and intellectual void. Over 50 years after the first university and others that followed later, there are no academicians that are role models for the young people and posterity to emulate. No outstanding publications from academia that catch the imagination of the people. Such social scientists that get into or solicit the limelight merely play to political galleries.
The change of guard at the end of 1991 did not entail a restructuring of governance institutions. Multipartyism was reintroduced, crafted on the institutions of the one-party system which had its peculiar norms or internal logic, namely power being indivisible and reposed in one institution with its requisite subsidiaries. The logical sequel was the inevitable privatisation of the state. One of the cultural gifts from one-partyism is the hero-worshipping and deification of leaders which permeates all parties, those in power or in opposition.
Some opposition parties have a burning desire to get into government without banishing sectarianism on which they may be anchored. They have no veritable blueprints to indicate a better development agenda or institutional overhaul which would deliver better governance and enhanced dutifulness and probity. The opposition parties are mute on such matters and yet injurious slippages in governance, especially exceedingly large commitment and integrity deficits, may have their origins in flawed and fraudulent governance practices. Assigning inordinate and unfettered power to an institution with very questionable trappings of accountability can never be salutary, let alone cost neutral anywhere. It is very obvious that much deeper reflection is required to devise better governance structures including meaningful “disprivatisation” of the state.
Now the crunch – the economy
There is an aura of despondency about the economy inexorably downward spiraling, almost on the verge of collapse. This is the worst case scenario, the reality is that there are still significant prospects for overcoming the current reverses but a bit more seriousness and purposefulness are needed. We also require a bit of help from nature in the form of a good rain season taking care of both the amounts of rainfall and appropriate distribution for the duration of the season, particularly at the pollination stage of crops like maize when moisture is needed to sustain the formation of seed on the cobs.
One of the current vexing challenges is the volatility in the kwacha parity or exchange rate which is essentially the price of our currency in terms of other currencies. Exchange rates have a series of ramifications, one of the most damaging facets being inflationary spirals which result from ever downward trends in the currency – there is, of course, need to guard against exchange overvalue. Some short-term remedies are adjustments in various monetary tools such as policy rates and reserve ratios which can contain speculation by over-liquid banks. However, these measures cannot deal with currency weakening that is a function of demand and supply disequilibrium. In these circumstances, greater government fiscal tightening can help. As a country, we need to import rationalisation and export diversification.
We started doing well on this front when non-mineral exports, so called non-traditional exports, peaked at 30% of total export earnings, but there has been a slide since then. This leaves copper still as the main exchange earner.
Mining companies in the past year have reduced instead of ramping up production, partly as a result of misperception in the policy sphere more so as it relates to taxation. This is a matter of profound regret because copper prices have now shot beyond $6,000 per tonne after a series of lows. Copper stocks as captured by the London metal exchange (lme) are reducing quite significantly and there are no greenfield ventures in the offing. It may be expedient to look at a measured mining policy review to foster a win-win scenario for both the government and the mining sector. Zambia is still an acceptable investment destination. We still remain the only credible country in Sub-Saharan Africa without crude exchange controls, investors need free movement of capital. For a long time, mining will remain an anchor of the economy. We haven’t even touched the over one billion tonnes of iron ore in mumbwa which at 70% fe (iron) content is the richest deposit in the world. Mining, contrary to popular perception in zambia, is not a glamourous jolly ride. There is a compelling need to send correct and hopeful signals to current and future investors in the mining sector.
Indisputably, there are severe or acute challenges in the economy but nothing is insurmountable. There are a host of useful activities in the economy. Fortunately, the activities are private-sector driven. A radical departure from expensive government patronage is good for any economy. My hope, not at all pious, is that zambia has many entrepreneurs including our most diligent women. The regrettable downside issue is just lack of logistical support for our enterprising folk – there are no support financial institutions with reasonable priced money.
The bottom line is that the immense difficulties that we face will be rendered easier to overcome if we all pool our efforts. There will be no easy solutions such as some of our prominent citizens showing their beautiful faces to the outside world and money starts rolling into zambia with amazing rapidity and ease. Such ideas are naivety par excellence and are only forgivable because most of us Zambians have this trait of seeking refuge in fantasy. Behavioural scientists would have a remarkable field day accounting for our exceptionally rich fantasy complex.
Zambia is our individual and collective responsibility. We should never outsource this responsibility even to the most benevolent fairy gods, also known as donors! We must do the right things to arrest the slide in the economy with due expedition. The ugly reality of life is that just as progress has useful multiplier effects, regression also has exponential propensities. De-escalating the rot is the only viable script for survival!