As I drove to work in the morning listening to the breakfast show and the current debate of whether or not the Zambia Amateur Athletics Association (ZAAA) should back off from censuring emerging amateur athletics groups that have evolved from being social running cliques to more organized and coordinated fitness groups, game theory came to mind.
The Elias Mpondela association has been at the helm of amateur athletics through the flagship annual Inter-company relay that has over the last 21 years been the must go to event for corporates and individuals that seek networking opportunities. The ZAAA’s strength was its ability to knock on doors and convince corporate entities to subscribe to the annual event allowing them to create a niche and over time grow their margins.
Over the years, many corporates developed a love mark for the annual event with Corporate CEOs and their management teams training weeks before to take part in the plethora of races that were on offer come race day. Some would even tap into some of the sponsorship packages that ZAAA would offer creating a symbiotic relationship.
However, over time with the advent of technology, whereas before many participants had to depend on when the ZAAA would announce the date of the race, Mark Zuckerberg had purchased whatsapp that revolutionized how individuals to gather themselves on a much more regular basis and achieve the same prime objective that set up the rise to fame of the ZAAA annual event albeit unintentionally.
ZAAA are an extant player in the game amateur athletics who had first mover advantage (FMA) but chose not to evolve over time. Depending on the annual event not only weakened their defence mechanism for new entrants and substitutes but it restricted growth and value creation because their model was centred on and around key events. This made the model vulnerable to new exercise models that could easily evolve and become miniature ZAAAs. As first mover, it was their game to lose.
Furthermore, the weakness in ZAAA’s model was low barriers to entry into the arena fitness. Anyone with a whatsapp group or facebook page could summon multitudes to their event without the drudgery of corporate formalities. They came with second mover advantage SMA.
Applying T+1 (T – time), it is clear to seek that the new model of amateur athletics offers the frequency of health conscious CEOs and their executive team require. Over time, with the advent of technological apps that allow participants to track their progress, integrate their performance and share their experience on social media means that the desire to compete in what would innocently be perceived as harmless competition is a direct threat to the value preposition of ZAAA. They will fight it. Fighting though has led to the current impasse which analogous to a Prisoners Dilemma: a situation in which two players each have two options whose outcome depends crucially on the simultaneous choice made by the other, often formulated in terms of two prisoners separately deciding whether to confess to a crime. In the ZAAA vs. Ubiquitous Amateur case, the two are the prisoners.
However, ZAAA risks setting itself up for a loss as they have not evolved. It is the second mover’s game not to lose. They will adapt. They will use technology. They with interact and still achieve the business interaction that the annual event provides at a fraction of the cost. In the end, the management team at ZAAA will have to ask themselves the simple question: Are we in the right whatsapp group?