The annual inflation rate rose to 21.5 percent in January 2021 from 19.2 percent in December 2020. Between January 2020 and January 2021, prices of goods and services increased by 21.5 percent on average. In September 2021, the inflation rate dropped to 22.1 percent from 24.4 percent in August. Between September 2020 and September 2021, prices of goods and services increased by 22.1 percent on average.
Additionally, this was mainly attributed to increases in prices of food items such as Meats (Fillet steak, Rump steak, Brisket, Ox-liver, Offal’s, Goat meat, Chicken Frozen, Chicken Live); Fish (Fresh Kapenta, Dried Kapenta Mpulungu); and Coffee, Tea and Cocoa (Instant Coffee Prima, Instant Coffee, Tea bags, Cocoa).
The annual food inflation for September, 2021 was recorded at 29.6 percent compared to 31.6 percent recorded in August 2021, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points. See figure 5 . This was mainly attributed to decreases in prices of food items such as Fish (Dried bream medium, Fresh kapenta); Vegetables (Rape, Chinese cabbage, Onion, Impwa, Cabbage, Green beans); Margarine, Eggs, Cooking oil and Sugar.
The Food and Non-alcoholic beverages group contributed 15.7 percentage points, higher than Non-food items which accounted for only 6.4 percentage points to the overall inflation rate of 22.1 percent.
The minimum and maximum prices for selected products by district are highlighted in Table 11. Over 23,000 price quotations are collected from these outlets between 1st and 10th of every month by Zamstats to come up with this.
On a monthly basis, retail prices between August, 2021 and September, 2021 showed that the national
average price of a 25 kg bag of Breakfas Meal decreased by 1.46 percent from K141.47 to
K139.40 while the national average price of a 25 kg bag of Roller Meal decreased by 3.87
percent from K111.45 to K107.14.
The national average price of a 20-litre tin of Maize Grain increased by 1.86 percent from K59.81 to K60.92 On an annual basis, retail prices between September, 2020 and September, 2021 showed that the national average price of a 25kg bag of Breakfast Meal increased by 9.30 percent from K127.54 to K139.40 while the national average price of a 25 kg bag of Roller Meal increased by 9.48 percent from K97.86 to K107.14 The national average price of a 20-litre tin of Maize Grain increased by 16.39 percent from K52.34 to K60.92.
Provincially, Lusaka contributed the highest at 6.1 percentage points to the overall annual inflation rate of 22.1 percent recorded in September, 2021. Copperbelt province was second highest, contributing 4.8 percentage points while North-Western province had the lowest contribution of 0.7 percentage points. Additionally, according to the World Food Programme Fill the nutrient Gap Summary report, Lusaka has some of the highest prices for non-animal source foods, but has low or average prices for animal source foods
Global food prices rose nearly 33% in September 2021 compared to September 2020. According to the FAO’s monthly Food Price Index, global prices have risen by over 3% since July, reaching levels not seen since 2011. So what is driving global food prices to historic highs? This is largely due to high fuel prices and the COVID-19 pandemic that has closed many export and import borders.
But there is hope as the Zambia National Farmers Union has said that the country is expected to have a bumper harvest as Zambia is expected to experience abundant rainfall. This will mean that food prices for the year 2022 may see a huge reduction, thus reducing the contribution to the overall 22.1 inflation rate. An optimistic expectation is that overall inflation may reduce to the 19% margins or slightly lower in the next 6+ months. according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations, the Inflation Rate in Zambia is expected to be 22.00 percent by the end of this quarter. In the long-term, the Zambia Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 14.00 percent in 2022 and 12.00 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models. See their forecast below: